Volume 1 | Issue
10 | Oct 2011
In This Issue:
A Note From John: This Month's Note from
John: The National Housing Market
Featured Article: Fire Prevention Week
Mixed Bag Timely articles and information |
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*I
have much more data at my fingertips than can go in the
newsletter. If you would like more specific information
about a particular area or neighborhood, even if it is
what the neighbor's house really sold for, just call or
email me and I will be happy to provide the information
for you.
** These statistics reflect
active, pending and sold single family homes for the
month ending September 30th, 2011. |
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Loan
(National Average)
15 Yr Fixed Conforming 30 Yr Fixed
Conforming
30 Yr Fixed Jumbo 5/1 ARM Conforming |
Rate
3.37% 4.06% 4.59%
2.99% |
Interest rates per
MonitorBankRates
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MEANINGFUL LINKS |
John Fischer Real Estate
San Ramon Valley School District
Pleasanton School
District
Acalanes School District
Danville Express
Groupon
Blackboard Eats
Readers Choice 2011 Winners
Danville Patch |
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If you have a family member, friend
or co-worker who is thinking about buying or selling
their home, please forward this email to them or have
them contact me at:
jfischer@rockcliff.com
Your referrals are truly appreciated! |
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"John Fischer is a great realtor and a great person.
He sold our house the first week we had it on the market
and helped us through all that went with the sale, even
though we were out of state.
I don't think we would have made it without his help." |
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The NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Depending on what you're reading or who you're listening
to, the housing market is near the bottom and the
recovery will take years.
• "Housing Market to Hit Bottom this Year" - Housing
Wire • "No Rise in Home Prices Until 2020: Bankers" - CNBC
These two recent reports have similar messages - Prices
won't go any lower, but the recovery from the highs of
2005-2007 will take until 2020.
Rick Sharga, EVP with Carrington Mortgage Holdings says
that, "The US housing market will hit bottom this year
and remain flat until 2014, when it will start to slowly
recover. We're looking at a catfish recovery with the
market bumping along the bottom for some time before
starting to revive. More than a million foreclosures
that should have taken place this year have not yet
moved forward, pushing the housing market's problems
into the future. Banks hold about 800,000 REOs and
three-quarters of those are not listed for sale. Another
800,000 homes are in foreclosure and 3.5 million loans
are delinquent."
A survey of bank risk managers found that 49 percent of
respondents do not expect housing prices to rise back to
2007 levels until 2020. In addition, 73 percent said
that they expect mortgage defaults to remain elevated
for another five years and 46 percent believe mortgage
delinquencies will increase over the next six months.
What about a recession? A double-dip recession is
imminent according to a forecast from the Economic Cycle
Research Institute. They say that it will be mild,
lasting less than a year. But if something like another
financial meltdown due to the European sovereign debt
crisis, it could become a very serious and deep
recession.
However, Eugenio Aleman, Director and Senior
Economist at Wells Fargo, says that "although US workers
have suffered as the nation has lost 9 million jobs over
a two-year period, the manufacturing and service sectors
are expanding. The rest of the economy is not booming,
but it's doing fine. We are not going to go into a
recession."
- John Fischer |
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Fire Prevention Week
October
9th–15th is Fire Prevention Week
Don't let the recent rains deter you from being steadfast in the protection
of your home. Even with the predictions of another cool and wet "La Niña"
year, you should always be prepared for the possibility of fire.
If your home is along the Wildland Urban Interface, start with the proper
"clearance to 100 feet", which dramatically increases the chance of your
house surviving a wildfire. This defensible space also provides for
firefighter safety when protecting homes during a wildland fire.
- Create a Defensible Space of 100 feet around your home. It is
required by law.
- Create a “LEAN, CLEAN and GREEN ZONE” by removing all
flammable vegetation within 30 feet immediately surrounding your home.
- Then create a “REDUCED FUEL ZONE” in the remaining 70 feet or to
your property line.
- Remove lower tree branches at least six feet from the ground.
- Landscape with fire resistant plants.
- Maintain all plants with regular water, and keep dead branches,
leaves and needles removed.
If your home is in the urban jungle, you can scale these defenses for your
own purpose. Be aware of unoccupied foreclosed homes in your neighborhood
that may not be maintained properly by the bank. Contact the city to report
dangerous conditions. This is also a good time to review/update your
insurance to make sure you have the proper coverage.
Finally, Cal Fire provides a handy
Homeowners Checklist loaded with tips on how to make your home fire safe
both outside and inside. Click on the link above or copy and paste the
address below into your browser.
http://fire.ca.gov/communications/downloads/fact_sheets/Checklist.pdf |
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Diablo Hacienda
Great Opportunity in Great Neighborhood
3 bedroom/2 bath detached home
Hardwood floors
Newly re-modeled master bath
Walk to all schools
$599,000
Contact me directly if you would like to know more about this listing or
know of anyone who is looking for a home.
jfischer@rockcliff.com |
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The Danville Market
A sampling of sales from 2004 to today, detached homes 2000-3000 sf, taking
the month of September, shows that the Danville market is down 25% from 2006
to 2011 in average sales price and down 25% from 2005 to 2011 in square
footage sales prices.
Year |
Avg Sale Price |
Sq. Ft. Price |
Avg Days on Mkt |
# Sales |
2011 |
$826,700 |
337 |
42 |
15 |
2010 |
$791,500 |
329 |
46 |
21 |
2009 |
$875,500 |
345 |
55 |
24 |
2008 |
$906,500 |
363 |
59 |
14 |
2007 |
$1,062,700 |
422 |
49 |
16 |
2006 |
$1,045,000 |
450 |
22 |
16 |
2005 |
$1,102,600 |
431 |
20 |
27 |
2004 |
$913,400 |
376 |
12 |
43 |
WHAT TO DO NOW?
Prices are down and probably staying there for awhile.
Interest rates are also down and staying there for a
little while. If you find something that you like now
and want to stay in the house for at least five years,
you should buy it now. Of course, sellers aren't happy
to be "losing 25%", but if they are trading up or down
it shouldn't matter. |
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Have a question about Real Estate, buying or selling a
home or the community? I encourage you to get in touch
with me, I'm here to serve. Click here to get
answers
Ask Your Question |
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I've been selling residential real estate for the past
six years here in the Diablo Valley. After graduating
from UCLA and then getting my MBA, I spent most of my
career in corporate sales starting with Xerox in the
1970's.
Following that, I proceeded into IBM computer sales and leasing.
My wife, Janeen, and I have lived in the same house in
Alamo since 1983 and have raised three children. They
all graduated from Monte Vista High School and have gone
to UCLA, UC Davis and University of Washington. Our
youngest, Kelsey, is now attending UC Hastings School of
Law. |
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